0:00: OK, so welcome to the deep dive.

0:01: And today, we've got a question that was sent in by a listener, and it's a really interesting one.

0:06: It gets right to the heart of how modern warfare is evolving.

0:10: Oh, absolutely.

0:11: Basically, are we seeing a shift away from relying on small numbers of super expensive Weapon systems, you know, think like the F-35 fighter jet.

0:24: Are we moving away from that towards using huge amounts of cheaper systems, things that are more software driven like drones?

0:32: That's the core question from the stuff we've been reading, and it's a really timely one, right, especially given everything going on.

0:37: I mean, the real crux of this whole deep dive today is to figure out if mass is starting to be more important.

0:43: class when it comes to winning battles.

0:46: Exactly.

0:46: And the war in Ukraine keeps coming up as the perfect example of this, right?

0:50: Oh yeah, definitely.

0:51: We're seeing relatively simple tech being used but on a massive scale, and it's actually causing a lot of problems for much more sophisticated and expensive military hardware.

1:00: I mean, one of the sources even made this crazy comparison.

1:02: They said a swarm of thousands of just regular off the shelf drones.

1:07: Could cost less than a single F-35 fighter jet.

1:10: Wow.

1:11: It makes you think, right?

1:12: It really does.

1:13: It's just spending less enough to make a big change, even if the capabilities aren't totally equal.

1:19: I mean, it makes you question how we usually do things.

1:21: Absolutely.

1:22: It challenges the traditional ways of thinking about military strategy and procurement for sure.

1:27: Yeah.

1:28: So for our deep dive, we really want to dig into the arguments behind this whole mass overclass approach.

1:36: Our source material gives us 5 main areas to explore, and we'll go through each one to get a really solid understanding of what's going on.

1:43: Perfect.

1:44: Let's jump right in.

1:45: OK.

1:45: So first, let's talk.

1:46: About the cost benefit analysis.

1:48: I mean, we're talking about these huge projects like the F-35, which the text tells us costs a ridiculous amount of money, like upwards of $80 million per plane, and that's before you even think about the operational costs, which are insane as well.

2:02: You know, I think the really important thing to understand is that we might be seeing a complete disruption of how we think about buying military equipment.

2:11: And it all comes down to money.

2:14: Does it really make sense to spend that much on these super high tech systems in every situation?

2:20: It's the question we have to ask now, isn't it, especially with all these cheaper options popping up, like the Atlantic report made this comparison.

2:27: They said you could buy.

2:29: Thousands and thousands of drones, just the kind you'd find at a regular store for the same price as 1 F-35.

2:36: That's wild.

2:37: And the argument is that in certain scenarios, a large group of drones could have a bigger impact than a single fancy jet, especially when you're dealing with multiple targets.

2:47: Whether it's for spying, overwhelming defenses, or even straight-up attacks.

2:51: They might be more effective, right?

2:53: And think about it.

2:55: One really advanced plane can only be in one spot at one time.

2:58: It can only attack a limited number of things, but a whole swarm of drones, that's different.

3:03: They can be everywhere watching lots of different places at once and hitting lots of targets at the same time.

3:09: I see what you mean.

3:10: And then there's this idea of a tradable systems, a tradable, meaning basically they're meant to be expendable, right?

3:16: Exactly.

3:17: You know, losing a small unmanned system hurts financially, sure, but it's nothing compared to losing a giant expensive plane, especially with the pilot on board.

3:28: Yeah, the pilot training is a massive investment, huge, and you can't put a price on the human cost either.

3:33: The text uses Ukraine as an example again.

3:36: They lose thousands of simple drones every month, a lot of them taken out by Russian electronic countermeasures.

3:42: That basically means messing with the drone's communication and navigation signals, a key weak spot.

3:47: But the thing is, even with all those losses, it still makes economic sense to just keep making and using more of those cheap drones.

3:54: It's part of the cost of doing business, so to speak.

3:58: So looking at the whole picture, it seems like using a lot of cheaper systems is often better when it comes to cost effectiveness.

4:05: You can maybe get the same results, or even better using lots of low cost things instead of a few super expensive ones.

4:11: And you'd be spending way less.

4:12: That's the core idea here.

4:14: It's about getting the most bang for your buck, militarily speaking.

4:19: And increasingly, the math says that having more simpler systems gives you more for your money, especially in certain situations.

4:27: OK, so let's move on to the second important factor, which is how easily you can scale up production.

4:33: Right.

4:33: One of the things that really stood out in the material was how much faster and easier it is to make these smaller software focused systems.

4:41: Compared to those long and complicated development processes for something like a fighter jet.

4:46: Oh yeah, the difference is huge.

4:48: It's night and day.

4:49: Look at the numbers.

4:50: Ukraine managed to make something like 2 million drones just in 2024, and they built 96% of those themselves in their own country.

4:59: That's amazing.

5:00: It's insane.

5:00: There's no way you could do that with advanced fighter jets.

5:03: We're talking about a production rate for the F-35 that's maybe a few dozen jets per year, and that's after years of development.

5:09: And and trying to ramp up production.

5:11: Exactly, it's a totally different ballgame, and it's not just about how fast you can build them.

5:14: It's about where and how you can build them.

5:16: That's where this idea of decentralized manufacturing comes in.

5:19: You don't need these gigantic specialized factories to build these things.

5:23: It can be done by a lot of different companies.

5:25: Some of them can even be put together in the field using off the shelf components like 3D printers and electronics you can buy anywhere.

5:33: It's like defense manufacturing is becoming more accessible.

5:37: The text mentioned the US loyal Wingman Program, which is specifically designed to be mass-produced using techniques from the civilian world, and companies like Kratos are supposedly able to build hundreds of their Valkyrie stealthy wingman jets each year for way cheaper than a regular fighter.

5:53: Exactly.

5:54: Being able to produce things so fast and cheaply is a potential game changer.

5:58: And we can't forget how adaptable these software-driven systems are.

6:02: They can be updated with new capabilities really quickly, things like AI powered target recognition just by changing the software.

6:08: That's a huge advantage for you.

6:10: The fact that they rely so much on software, it means you can add new features, new capabilities quickly.

6:16: And they can adapt to changes in a way that's much harder for traditional hardware heavy systems.

6:21: Think about how long and expensive it is to upgrade something like the F-35.

6:25: It takes years.

6:26: Right?

6:27: So, you've got this flexibility in two ways.

6:29: First, you can rapidly increase the number of these things you have available because production is so fast, and second, you can quickly adapt them to new situations and battlefield needs by updating the software.

6:39: Yes, which brings us to the third key area, and this is probably the most interesting one right now.

6:44: The lessons we're seeing from the war in Ukraine.

6:46: The text calls it a real world case study of how mass and class interact.

6:51: Yeah, totally.

6:53: It's changing how we think about warfare.

6:55: I mean, one of the most important takeaways is that having better technology doesn't automatically mean you'll win if your opponent can just throw more resources at the problem.

7:03: It's a major lesson from Ukraine.

7:05: It shows us that in modern warfare, the number of things you have can actually have a qualitative effect.

7:11: It forces us to re-evaluate how we build our armies.

7:15: We've seen this play out a few different ways, right?

7:16: Absolutely.

7:17: The text points out how the Russians have tried to make up for their shortcomings in some areas by just sending tons of soldiers and lower tech stuff into the.

7:24: Right, that's one side of it.

7:26: But the other side, which is maybe even more surprising, is how well Ukraine has used hundreds, even thousands of cheap drones to outmaneuver or even destroy really expensive Russian equipment, tanks, artillery, air defenses, the whole works.

7:41: This creates a real problem for someone on the defensive, even if they have really advanced weapons from the west.

7:47: How do you stop yourself from being overwhelmed by an enemy that just keeps throwing cheap stuff at you?

7:53: It seems almost wasteful from the defender's point of view, but it works.

7:57: Yeah, it really makes you rethink how you use your most valuable equipment and how you deal with the threat that's both numerous and constantly changing.

8:05: The text also points out something really interesting about the air war in Ukraine.

8:09: You'd think that fancy fighter jets would be ruling the skies there, but it turns out they haven't had a huge impact.

8:15: That's because of all the air defenses and electronic warfare being used.

8:18: It's too risky for them to be up there.

8:20: Exactly.

8:20: It's just too dangerous for high performance aircraft to operate near the front lines.

8:25: Instead, the text highlights how drones have become the dominant force in the air over there.

8:31: Everything from small quadcopters giving real-time intel to those disposable swarm drones meant to overwhelm defenses.

8:39: This is really changing how tactical maneuvers are planned and executed.

8:43: And Ukraine has adapted to this situation really well.

8:46: They've set up special drone units, as the text mentions.

8:49: And they're using drones you can just buy commercially, almost like they're mass produced consumer goods.

8:54: That's the key.

8:55: They're adapting quickly and finding ways to use this tech that's readily available.

9:00: Western analysts are saying that quantity has become a major factor in warfare again.

9:05: The study by the Konrad Adenauer stiff tongue, which warned against, depending on just a few superior weapon systems, really supports this idea.

9:14: Right.

9:14: The takeaway is that we can't get too obsessed with these big expensive projects.

9:19: We're learning some tough lessons in Ukraine that we shouldn't ignore for sure.

9:23: In a long war where both sides are constantly wearing each other down, having a few gold-plated solutions, as the text calls them, just isn't enough.

9:31: You need to have enough stuff to keep fighting and keep up the pressure.

9:35: It's about resilience and keeping up the momentum.

9:38: Mass can beat class if there just isn't enough of that class to go around.

9:43: It's important to point out, like the text does, that this doesn't mean high-tech weapons are useless now.

9:49: It's about finding the right mix.

9:51: Ukraine's experience shows that combining advanced weapons with large numbers of simpler systems might be the best way to fight in the future.

9:58: Makes sense.

9:59: So we've talked about cost-benefit advantages, the flexibility in production, and the lessons we're learning from Ukraine.

10:05: Now, let's move on to the 4th key area, which is whether all of this is technologically feasible.

10:11: Are drones and AI powered swarms really capable of replacing manned high-tech aircraft?

10:18: It's a great question, and the answer is, well, it's complicated.

10:22: I mean, in some roles, unmanned systems are already showing they're better.

10:25: The text talks about how they can be used for basic things like scouting and surveillance and also for more complex tasks like deploying cruise missiles.

10:33: And then there's all the progress being made with coordinated drone swarms that's coming along fast.

10:37: And then there's the fact.

10:38: That they're becoming much more autonomous because of advances in artificial intelligence.

10:43: We're not talking about AI taking over the world or anything, but things like improved computer vision for targeting and smarter navigation algorithms are making a big difference.

10:52: It makes them much more effective and reduces how much human control is needed.

10:56: Exactly.

10:57: The US program Replicator, which is mentioned in the text, is a perfect example of this.

11:02: They're trying to deploy hundreds of autonomous systems.

11:05: Across all branches of the military in a very short time frame.

11:09: The goal is to basically overwhelm adversaries like China with a flood of cheap disposable drones.

11:16: It's a sign that they're really serious about going down this path.

11:19: However, the text also says that manned high-tech aircraft are still important for certain things.

11:24: Right.

11:25: The experts are saying that AI and unmanned systems aren't quite there yet in terms of reliability, adaptability, and especially decision making.

11:33: Human pilots are still much better at handling the constantly changing, unpredictable situations you find in air combat.

11:40: The F-35, for example, gives you a level of awareness and flexibility that small drones just can't match right now.

11:47: Yeah, and Just trying to manage the communication and coordination between dozens or even hundreds of drones in a swarm is a huge technical challenge.

11:58: bandwidth limitation, bandwidth, yes, and the complexity of keeping everything under control, right?

12:04: And then there's the question of how vulnerable these swarms are.

12:07: Even with all the autonomous features meant to make them more resilient, they're still susceptible to electronic warfare, things like jamming and hacking.

12:14: These are big issues that need solutions.

12:16: Absolutely.

12:17: And then of course we Can't forget about the ethical and legal questions that come with giving weapons systems more and more autonomy.

12:23: What happens if they encounter something unexpected or a situation they haven't been programmed for?

12:27: There's a whole other can of worms.

12:29: Yes.

12:30: So it seems like the consensus for now is that drones and AI powered systems will probably work alongside manned jets rather than replacing them entirely, at least for the time being, and especially when facing a well equipped and technologically advanced enemy.

12:45: That's the general thinking at the moment.

12:47: The trend seems to be moving towards what's called manned unmanned teaming.

12:52: This means future fighter jets will have drones, often called loyal wingmen, working with them to handle riskier tasks or to extend their reach and effectiveness.

13:01: It's almost like a partnership.

13:02: Exactly.

13:03: The text mentions that they're doing a lot of testing with these swarm and teaming technologies, and there's a lot.

13:08: Of potential to change how air forces work.

13:10: But it also reminds us that even really complex planes like the F-35 don't have a direct unmanned replacement for certain specialized high-end rolls, things like establishing air superiority or nuclear sharing.

13:24: Right.

13:24: The technology is improving rapidly, but we haven't reached the point where one can completely take over for the other in all situations.

13:31: It's about getting the best out of both man and unmanned systems.

13:35: Which brings us to the last key area discussed in the text, the importance of independence and decentralized production, especially for Europe.

13:43: It's an aspect that doesn't get talked about enough.

13:46: The text argues that having a lot of smaller homegrown weapon systems can actually give a country more strategic independence.

13:54: Exactly.

13:55: It's about not relying too much on other countries, especially for your essential military equipment.

14:01: When European nations buy US made aircraft like the F-35, they automatically become dependent on the US for things like maintenance, spare parts, and those crucial software updates that control what the aircraft can do.

14:14: The text also brought up a recent debate in Germany about whether US weapon systems might have a kill switch.

14:20: The idea is that the manufacturer or the US government could remotely disable or limit the aircraft.

14:26: Oh right.

14:27: Well, experts might argue about whether there's actually an instant off switch.

14:30: The text highlights the real concern that the US could stop its allies from using F-35s just by holding back on things like ammo, essential parts, or software updates.

14:39: Yeah, it's a worry.

14:40: The point is that a country could lose control over its own defenses.

14:44: They could.

14:44: The texts contrast this with how much more autonomy you get with smaller locally made systems.

14:51: If European countries design and build their own drones, robotics and AI software, they keep control over that technology.

14:59: They control how it's produced.

15:00: It gives them more freedom.

15:02: Being able to get supplies independently, especially during a crisis or conflict, is extremely important.

15:08: The text uses Ukraine as a good example of this, showing how they had to quickly develop their own drone industry out of necessity because they had no other choice.

15:16: And having production spread out for these smaller systems is also a big advantage for Europe, right?

15:21: Absolutely.

15:22: Instead of depending on just a few big international companies, lots of European defense firms and high tech startups could get involved in making drones, sensors, and AI software.

15:32: Right.

15:32: This would encourage more innovation in the industry and spread out the work involved in producing all of this.

15:37: The text does acknowledge though that Europe is still pretty new to all of this, and the war in Ukraine has shown that even the combined Western arms industry can't easily keep up with the demands of a major war.

15:48: So Europe needs to increase its production capacity significantly.

15:52: And the argument is that smaller, less complicated systems are inherently easier to make in larger numbers.

15:58: It makes sense.

15:59: The text even mentioned that some people in Germany are realizing how slow and cumbersome their current system is.

16:05: It can take forever to get a new weapon system, sometimes even longer than it takes to get a simple mini drone.

16:10: Wow.

16:11: That kind of bureaucracy and delay can really hurt your ability to adapt to new threats.

16:16: Smaller projects might be a way to streamline the process and get things done much faster.

16:20: Ultimately, the text concludes that by focusing on making their own smaller scale weapon systems, Europe and countries like Germany could have more strategic freedom and be less reliant on others for technology.

16:31: So, as we wrap up our deep dive into this material, the main message seems to be that there might be a big shift in how we think about military strategy and procurement.

16:41: The key takeaway is that making weapons that are mass produced, cost effective, and software driven has some real advantages.

16:48: It might even challenge the traditional idea of relying on a small number of super expensive super advanced platforms.

16:55: Definitely we can't just ignore what's been happening in Ukraine.

16:59: We have to seriously think about moving past the class over mass mindset that's been around for so long.

17:06: The text suggests that Germany and the EU should really consider this alternative approach while also still getting high-end systems like the F-35.

17:14: It doesn't have to be one or the other.

17:15: Maybe a more balanced hybrid approach would be better.

17:17: Yeah, a mix of both.

17:19: That makes sense.

17:19: So they could use high-tech aircraft when absolutely necessary, but also take advantage of the cost effectiveness and sheer numbers of mass produced systems when it makes sense to do so.

17:29: Exactly, use the right tool for the right job.

17:32: and the check even hints that maybe in the long run, we might need fewer of those.

17:36: Super expensive platforms as drone technology keeps getting better.

17:40: It's possible technology changes so fast.

17:43: I mean, investing in a wider range of smaller, smarter weapon systems isn't just about saving money.

17:49: It's about making sure a country can stand on its own 2 ft and make its own decisions, especially with all the geopolitical uncertainty we have today.

17:58: So for you, our listeners, the idea is this.

18:01: Maybe this whole mass overclass concept isn't just some futuristic idea.

18:05: Maybe it's a serious option for making sure Europe can be strong, well-equipped, and independent, especially when facing a crisis.

18:12: Thanks for joining us on this deep dive.

18:14: My pleasure.

18:14: We'll see you next time.

18:15: See you then.